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Sports picks and analysis from a contrarian perspective

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Forget What You Think You Know

Posted on May 12th 2008, 12:33 AM  

Reader CJ sent me an email last week asking, “What do you wish you knew when you were starting out?”

I could write an entire book detailing the thousands of mistakes that I made in my first six years of wagering. There is so much that goes into being a winning player, and a lot of it can only be learned through experience.

If I were to use my time machine to go back and give an 18 year old Money Line a single piece of advice on wagering, Here is what I tell my younger self:

THE ODDSMAKERS KNOW MORE THAN YOU DO.

Not just about odds, but also about the relative merits of players and teams. It is their job to know more than you, and they are VERY good at what they do.

That may sound like an obvious statement of fact.  If it does then you are already on the right track.  Some people never get it though.

I spent the first four years of my career donating to the books because I believed that I had an edge over the oddsmakers simply because I knew tons about teams and players.

Talk about having your head up your ass.

It’s ridiculous if you really think about. There aren’t that many other endeavors in life where an otherwise self-aware person can be so easily deluded into thinking he is great at something that he has never even tried before.

For instance, the first few (hundred) times I got laid my performance was terrible, but I was aware of this fact and thus took the necessary steps (practice and penis enlargement meds) to improve my skills.

With wagering I was an all time great in my own mind from the word go. It didn’t matter that I had zero sports wagering experience going in. I was going to take it to the stupid oddsmakers using my finely tuned sports acumen.

It does not work that way. The sooner you can wrap your head around the fact that I bolded and capitalized above.  The better off you will be.

No Comment

Making Mom Proud

Posted on May 11th 2008, 10:06 AM  

Nationals -122 (1)

Reds +120 (1)

Tampa Ray -102 (1)

Utah Jazz -1.5 -103 (2)

The line movement on the Jazz/Laker game has been whack.  The line opened at Utah -5 offshore and has been dropping ever since.

I guess it can be attributed to the notion that it is basically impossible to beat the Lakers twice in a row.  If that really is true then somebody forgot to alert the odds makers.  Teams with a 0% chance of winning usually aren’t installed as favorites.

4 Comments

Tags: Jazz, Nationals, Rays, Reds

Hungover

Posted on May 10th 2008, 12:08 PM  

Last night I got really drunk and wound up in a argument with one of my best friends. This wouldn’t be noteworthy at all except that this debate was centered around whether or not I provide a better wagering solution here than Dr. Bob does at his tout site.

Obviously I believe that I do. This is a pretty bold proclamation considering that “Dr. Bob” has been featured in the Wall Street Journal and regularly forces sports books to adjust their lines. I am going to address this topic in detail on Monday.

Here are today’s industry altering selections:

Twins +150 (1)

Tampa Ray -118 (1)

Chicago White Sox -112 (1)

Pittsburgh -104 (1)

Cincy Game 2 +136 (1)

Rockies +111 (1)

3 Comments

Tags: Pirates, Rays, Reds, Rockies, Twins, White Sox

Baseball Is A Volume Sport

Posted on May 9th 2008, 2:00 PM  

Somehow I forgot this when the calendar flipped to May.

Pirates -110 (1)

Tampa Ray -1.5 +130 (1)

Cincy +140 (1)

Cleveland -117 (1)

BOOOOOOFFFFFF +113 (1)

4 Comments

Tags: Indians, Pirates, Rays, Reds, Twins

Beisbol De Tarde

Posted on May 9th 2008, 9:53 AM  

I really, really, really did not want to bump the Sevransky roast down but afternoon plays are mission critical.

Cubs -113 (1)

I’ve been in a mini bases funk for the last week where I haven’t been able to pull the trigger on ugly faves. Naturally they will stop coming in now that I have my wings back.

No Comment

Tags: Cubs
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