Weekend NBA Review
Posted: November 10th, 2008 | Filed under: Last Decade | No Comments »
The results of this morning’s poll have been noted.
New Jersey +7.5 -106 (3) – Winner
Chicago +4.5 -105 (5) – Winner
Charlotte +7.5 +100 (3) – Winner
Oklahoma City +11 +109 (3) – Winner
OKC was down 29 at the half and 19 with 3:15 to play. Had I been on Utah this section of the post would be chalk full of screen grabs, so yes, I got pretty lucky.
Sacramento/Minnesota Over 199.5 -102 (2) – Winner
Toronto/Atlanta Under Under 185.5 -110 (2) – Loser
New Orleans -11 -105 (3) – Push
I am starting to question the wisdom of betting into lines that have already moved significantly in the direction that I am looking to side with.
Milwaukee +5.5 +102 (3) – Loser
Phoenix/Milwaukee Under 198 -101 (2) – Loser
Oh come the fuck on:
Chicago +1.5 +109 (3) – Loser
Another stellar 4th quarter performance from a team I bet on.
Charlotte +4 -101 (3) – Loser
Another stellar 4th quarter performance from a team I bet on.
Clippers +4 +100 (5) – Winner
Detroit -1.5 -101 (3) – Loser
Nobody tell Detroit that the 2nd quarter counts too because the fact that they don’t show up for it will probably help me more than it will hurt me.
Oklahoma City +4.5 -105 (3) – Winner
This was as close as they come. The Thunder are going to be the cause of a lot of pain over the next 6 months.
Sacramento -3.5 -108 (3) – Winner
LA/Hou Under 188.5 -101 (3) – Loser
Same complaint I had with Boston earlier in the week:
I just don’t see any sense in having him in the game at that point.
Do you mean betting into a -11 line that was once -8 or betting into a -11 line that was once -14? Because the former would cause me to rethink a lot of what I do.
I honestly like lines that don’t budge moreso than ones that shift like the first scenario adam laid out.
It’s an indication of big money coming in on your side, which is obviously great, but you are losing value.
The former. And yes it runs counter to something that has been a huge part of my style for years.
In about a month or so contrarian angles is going to be revived, and I am going to start thinking out loud about this issue.
“It’s an indication of big money coming in on your side, which is obviously great, but you are losing value.”
My thoughts exactly. These lines only have so much value to begin with. If a number moves 2 full points then how much value could possibly be left?
Those are both good points.
I’ve obviously thought about the idea as well, but not from this angle. My biggest problem at this point is defining the best sides early on.
On my blog, I play most, but not all of my Tuesday strong leans. If I was betting 100% of them, I would argue that I should be placing them on Tuesday.
I’ll be interested to see how my thought experiment plays out at the end of the year.