A Tame Wednesday

Posted: January 7th, 2009 | Filed under: Last Decade | No Comments »

There was only like 20 people reading this site at the time, but the anniversary of the day that I speak of frequently is only 2 weeks away.

Don’t let this post fool you.  There may be a lot of leans, but there won’t be very many plays.  Same drill as yesterday.  Home teams listed first.  Leans in italics.

Indiana +7.5 vs. Michigan

Backing this Indiana team is a frightening inevitability, so you’ll have to forgive me for being in no hurry to start.  Maybe I am just rationalizing (the action on this game at a few places supports this at the moment), but I don’t think that everyone truly grasps just how bad things really are in Bloomington right now. They will soon.

Duke -14 vs. Davidson

I don’t know.  Yes, chalk killed me last night, but that does not actually matter. The fact that Dickie V won’t be on the call definitely does though.

I’ve noticed, and I’m really just making an observation here, that this equation holds true quite often:

really good player on a decent to bad team that happens to be catching double digit points = somewhat public dog

With the logic usually being that there is no way Player X will allow his team to lose by N amount.  Sorry, but as great as Stephon Curry is, he isn’t guarding all 5 positions on the floor tonight.

Hofstra -4 vs. Delaware

Yep.  I like wagering on Colonial Athletic Association men’s basketball.  Sue me.

Syracuse -13.5 vs. Depaul

I know how dangerous comparisons like this can be, but wasn’t Cleveland St catching a very similar # when they visited the Carrier Dome a few weeks ago?  Depaul has a more recognizable name, but they are not nearly as good as Cleveland St.

ODU -9.5 vs. James Madison

I don’t think fading James Madison is in my blood.

South Florida +10.5 vs. Louisville

It is pretty obvious just from studying the action on a few of their recent games that a lot of people don’t believe that Ville is capable of blowing other teams out.

Duquense -3.5 vs. Unc Charlotte

I am sick of the 49ers, and it is fucking Duquense we are talking about here, but I am just trying to be as thorough as possible.

Georgia St +2 vs. Northeastern

I am not sure if I want to put my perfect record backing the Panthers in 08-09 on the line in this spot.  Click here if you have no idea which of these schools has the nickname Panthers.

Cincinnati -3.5 vs. Providence

Meh.  The line seems a bit low, but we’re looking at two pretty average teams here, right?  It’s not like anyone is super pumped up about the Bearcats.  I don’t see much of an angle.

Memphis -19.5 vs. Marshall

Unlikely.

Fordham +5 vs. Saint Bonnaventure

I am not going to say too much about this game because I know it is getting gigabytes worth of coverage elsewhere, but what the hell happened to Fordham?  Getting 5 at home to the Bonnies?  They have completely fallen off the grid.

Eastern Michigan +8.5 vs. Temple

Ken Pomeroy’s numbers do not approve of this lean.  I’m not sure I do either.

Evansville -8.5 vs. Missouri St

So apparently last Saturday I laid chalk with a team that is bad enough to be getting 8.5 from Evansville.  Awesome.

Wisconsin -7.5 vs. Northwestern

One of the keys to not getting your legs broken in this business is to develop a very powerful yet selective memory.   I am furious at Northwestern for crapping themselves in the 2nd half against Michigan St on Saturday, but that absolutely cannot play a role in this decision.  In fact in a way it makes this an even better potential play.

Tennessee -4 vs. Gonzaga

It is sort of amusing how quickly I give up on my long term positions.

I stopped following the Hoyas (seriously, how are they doing?) this summer when Vernon Macklin and Jeremiah Rivers, two guys I was counting on little to nothing from, left the team.

I ignored the Ravens for 9 full weeks after they lost in OT to Pittsburgh in Week 4.

I gave up on the Dolphins to win the AFC East after their Week 12 (bet was placed before Week 9) loss to the Patriots. Oops.

I was over the Packers (placed during my hiatus, before Week 14) 5 minutes after I took them to win the NFC North.

And I actually marked my wagers on KU to win the 2008 NCAA Tournament as losers in my spreadsheet when they were down 9 with 2:12 to play in the final.

Okay, so the last one is a shitty example, but my point is that if I give up on teams this easily on a consistent basis then how do you think I feel right now about a Gonzaga team that has lost 4 of their last 5?

Fuck. Them. Would be the correct answer, which is why it is hard for me to fairly evaluate them at this point in time.

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