2009 Marquette vs. 2008 Marquette
Posted: February 3rd, 2009 | Filed under: Last Decade | No Comments »
On Friday night one of my friends (a Marquette alum) asked me what I thought of the team this year, and I responded off the cuff “they are probably slightly worse than last year.” To which he replied “You don’t know shit about college basketball.”
Based on my record so far this season he may be right about that, but I’d like to think that whatever brain trauma I’ve suffered from banging my head against the wall for the last 3 months has yet to render my ability to objectively analyze sports obsolete. As it turns out my on the spot comment was actually very accurate.
It may not be a bad idea to check out the charts below before you cite the Golden Eagles gaudy record and senior leadership as evidence of them being a vastly improved team.
The stats were all ripped straight from Ken Pomeroy. From the looks of it Marquette is a bit better offensively and a good deal worse defensively this year than they were last year. The scary thing for Marquette fans is that I think their offense might regress slightly as the year goes on. Here’s why:
I suppose it is possible that Jerel McNeal and Wesley Matthews spent the entire summer mastering Tom Nordland’s “Swish” Method. If that is the case, I am not sure why they didn’t let Dominic James watch the video with them.
Now I’m not saying that those two didn’t improve in the off-season, but it is highly unlikely that they were both able to increase their outside shooting skill so dramatically (especially in the case of McNeal). Let’s not forget that 3P FG% is down nationally this season due to the extended 3 point line.
Even if the 3P shooting does somehow hold constant, the Golden Eagles lack of interior defense should have them riding on a plane back to Milwaukee before the Sweet 16 starts (At least it won’t be at the hands of these guys again). Simply put, Marquette’s opponents are having way to easy a time converting their 2P FGAs. I am not smart enough to tell you exactly why this is happening (less size and depth up front = less resistance/willingness to foul?), but I know all too well how bad this trait is for business come March.
Look, Buzz Williams inherited a nice squad, but at the absolute best, and this is a stretch, they are the 4th most capable team in the Big East. Their 19-2 record and subsequent high opinion poll ranking is largely the product of them having only faced a pathetic non conference schedule (ranked 281st) and the easier portion of their Big East schedule to date.
Marquette is not the 8th best team in the country or a probable 2 seed in the NCAA tournament*. That’s just reality. I only point this out because this gap between perception and reality makes them a valuable fade target for the next month or so. Now if you’ll excuse me I have to go get ready to watch Jerel McNeal shoot 8-10 from 3 in a 28 point victory over Depaul.
* – FWIW, Marquette would be a 1 point favorite against Missouri in the 2nd round of that hypothetical bracket.
Editors Note: Joe Sheehan made some similar comments regarding Marquette in his chat at BP today. This makes me feel smart and look like a crook at the same time. Thanks for pointing this out Dusty. I guess.
They are definitely better than last year. I don’t know what your talking about…
They’re looking good tonight, DePaul blows!
“I don’t know what your talking about…”
I know you don’t. That’s the whole point.
At what point do all of these free lock sites start cutting into the margins of the touts?
I wish your Marquette analysis was as detailed and helpful as, “I think that Cleveland is coming off a good victory against the Pistons and will be ready to play a struggling Raptors team which is 19-30 overall.”
You left out the best part:
“Toronto has lost its last 2 games which were both on the road by an average of 17.5 ppg”
What tough road losses Toronto suffered to Milwaukee and Orlando over the weekend in Toronto.
Toronto lost those games at home?! They’ll play even worse on the road. The best kept secret in the association is Cleveland’s home record. They’re 22-0 SU and 17-5 ATS at home. Cleveland rules!
Joe Sheehan echoed these sentiments about Marquette in his chat over at BPro today (link in name). Question posed by Strupp about 1/3 of the way down. He also promotes value in the Rangers, A’s and (kind of) the M’s to win the West.
“They’re 22-0 SU”
You’re right. Nobody is making mention of this. At all.
I guess this will be better than Golden St last night ( I was getting 4.5). At least this way, I turn them both off, check back later, and if somehow I got a split, it feels like I won.
Toronto won the second quarter by 3 and is still down 19 at halftime. Wow.
In your defense, he held his chat after this was posted.
Well 9 minutes in and McNeal is already 4-4 from 3…
“Well 9 minutes in and McNeal is already 4-4 from 3…”
Too funny.
Pretty pathetic collapse from Force. Game was tied with 8:30 to go.
Air Force get outscored 26-3 in last 10 minutes……..Unreal
Will Walker may finally be shooting over 40% on the season. It only took until February.
I don’t know why I torture myself by going to these games anymore.
Marquette, while having pretty much the same players as last year, is playing a very different style under Buzz Williams than they did under Crean – emphasizing less reaching on defense = less fouls so that the big 4 can stay on the court – they are not a deep team. Similarly, on offense they have moved from an offense that was set-driven to a more free flowing 4 in 1 out, which has lead to Matthew’s meteoric rise. As for McNeal, if you look at last year’s stats, he played this well the last 10 games of 07-08 as well… you would have to say pretty soon that he is no longer a fluke.
“As for McNeal, if you look at last year’s stats, he played this well the last 10 games of 07-08 as well… you would have to say pretty soon that he is no longer a fluke.”
I’m not saying he isn’t good. I’m just saying that he didn’t attain Steve Novak’s 3 point shooting ability overnight.