2009 PGA Championship: Round 2
Posted: August 13th, 2009 | Filed under: Mitch Lowe | 13 Comments »
Mitch-Fest was a smashing success. Here’s a summary for those that missed out and are too lazy to read the entire Mitch Lowe subcategory:
- The Saw notices 5 Dimes offering the tournament match-up: Alvaro Quiros -130 vs. Mitch Lowe
- Heads across the contrarian community explode.
- Research is conducted, and Mitch Lowe is revealed to be a mediocre, ASSISTANT club pro from California.
- Jonny convinces 5Dimes that the odds are a mistake but not before many bets were taken and the prop was added to the MB market.
- Undeterred by the fact that the line was an error, the contrarian community remains infatuated with Mitch Lowe.
- Millions of Tweets to Jason Sobel later, the ESPN writer mentions Mitch not once but twice during his Round 1 live blog (at 9:39 AM and 2:30 PM)
- Google searches for the phrase “Mitch Lowe, golfer” increase 1,000,000,000,000 fold. The TMLJ is the primary beneficiary of this bonanza, receiving an extra 28 hits.
- Mitch Lowe shoots an 84.
It was fun while it lasted, but now it’s time to get back to the business at hand: Losing Money.
Round 2 Match Ups
The pairings are the same as they were for Round 1, but some of the lines have changed drastically. It should be fairly obvious what my general strategy is. I’m playing Sutherland over Romero again at a slightly worse price because I feel pretty strongly about that one.
Camilo Villegas +130 over Hunter Mahan (2)
Kevin Sutherland -120 over Andres Romero (2)
Phil Mickelson -116 over David Toms (2)
Luke Donald +125 over Anthony Kim (2)
Despite my love of Hunter Mahan, I agree completely with the first two. Not sure what you were thinking on Phil, though. I don’t think you need to make that move at all.
“Not sure what you were thinking on Phil, though.”
The thinking was that -116 is 39 cents better than -155.
“The thinking was that -116 is 39 cents better than -155.”
Unfortunately for me -103 is 52! cents better, and you currently can get a bundle at that price at MB.
Saw Donald +125 over Kim at 5Dimes and added it on.
They also have Phil at -130 over Mahan, which makes me feel a bit better about the Toms/Mickelson nonsense.
I guess you got a good price, but I’d be willing to argue that Mickelson/Toms is a toss-up right now. I do hate Phil, though, and think he is the single most overrated golfer right now.
“I guess you got a good price”
Not really now that -103 is out there.
“I’d be willing to argue that Mickelson/Toms is a toss-up right now”
Out of curiosity, what’s the basis for your position here? Do you think you would have felt the same way on Wednesday night?
“I do hate Phil, though, and think he is the single most overrated golfer right now”
I don’t particularly like him either, and he might be, but I’m not sure he was super overrated coming in to this event. He scored like shit last week and wasn’t even the clear cut 2nd fave like he normally is at the majors (sans the British).
I may be wrong, but my feelings on this subject are pretty clear at the moment. I think the market hugely overreacts to what happened the round before, and I’m going to try & exploit it.
Phil was -155 over Toms on Wednesday. On Thursday Toms beat him 5 by shots and now the line is -116? What changed?
FWIW, the fact that the bet was placed against David Toms and not some total shade ball unknown played a huge factor in the decision.
I don’t know if I would have said this Wednesday or not. I obviously think Phil is better, but coming off a layoff against David Toms on a “Bomber’s course” I’m not convinced that Phil is noticeably better.
I think you will agree that not much changes on one round, but that doesn’t mean the line wasn’t shaded to Phil from the start. From what I see around the internets, I think Phil is more ridiculously valued by fans than any other golfer.
It’s impossible to say this now, but I think Toms was the play in round 1, and now it has shifted in the direction of a more fair line.
FWIW, I haven’t exactly dominated round plays recently, I’m not just sure backing Phil Mickelson against anyone except Padraig or Westwood is something I really need to do. Good luck, tomorrow though, I’ll certainly be rooting for you to win.
“but that doesn’t mean the line wasn’t shaded to Phil from the start. ”
I agree and considered this before making the move.
I just have a hard time believing that it was shaded upwards of 40 cents for public perception in a situation where Mickelson is pitted against a pretty popular former champion of this event in Toms.
“FWIW, I haven’t exactly dominated round plays recently”
Totally irrelevant pending larger sample sizes.
Final Pinny lines on these:
Sutherland -126/+114
Mickelson -130/+118
Mahan -130/+118
Had I gotten -103 on Phil, I’d consider this a landslide victory. As it stands, it’s pretty much a wash. You should be able to beat the Pinny line at MB.
Phil up to -137 at Pinnacle. Mahan/Villegas to -135/+122.
I guess Donald has a hot, sick wife he’s desperate to get back to as well. Fucker.