Extremely Early 2009 Big 11 College Hoops Preview
Posted: April 1st, 2008 | Filed under: Last Decade | 13 Comments »
Why in the name of Gus Johnson am I releasing 2009 college hoops previews before the 2008 season has even ended? Because the odds makers usually drop national championship futures odds for next year on us a few days after the championship game. I need to have a general idea of how good teams figure to be next year if I am going to take a crack at those openers.
The point of this exercise is to nail down the teams most likely to be practicing in Detroit this time next year. I am not trying to project the entire tournament field or the exact seed line that teams will be land on. That would be impossible.
I am working with a TON of incomplete information here, so take these for what they are worth. The picture will be a lot clearer on June 18th, but by then it will probably be too late to grab great value.
The numbers in ellipses next to NBA draft defections are ratings from Chad Ford’s Top 100. The numbers next to the incoming recruits are their Rivals 150 and ESPN 100 rankings.
Team: Wisconsin Badgers
Final Pomeroy Rating: 5
Losses to Graduation: Michael Flowers, Brian Butch, Greg Stiemsma
NBA Draft Flight Risks: None
Highly Touted Recruits: Jared Berggen (58, NR), Jordan Taylor (109, NR)
Outlook: The losses of Flowers and Butch should cause what was arguably the country’s best team defense in 07-08 to take a step back in 08-09. Nobody will miss the “Polar Bear” as much as my friend Brent Musburger.
I just don’t see how they can possibly be better next year. I guess it could happen if Hughes, Bohannon, and Landry all improve tremendously and the Freshman are better than expected, but do you really want to bet on all of that happening? Me either.
Projected NCAA Seed Range: 5-9
Predicted Preseason Odds: 50-1
Would Play Them At: Wouldn’t
Team: Michigan St Spartans
Final Pomeroy Rating: 15
Losses To Graduation: Drew Neitzel and Drew Naymick
NBA Draft Flight Risks: Raymar Morgan (NR)
Highly Touted Recruits: Delvon Roe (14, 11), Korie Lucious (91, NR), Draymond Green (122, 35)
Outlook: How is this group any different from recent editions of Izzo’s good but not great Spartans?
An optimistic Spartan fan would say that this will be Morgan’s breakout year and that Roe, Lucious, and Green will more than make up for the departed Drew’s, but that is a lot to hope for when you are debating whether or not to lay some green on the Green.
Sparty will be good enough to make the tourney and compete once again in the weak Big 10, but they are a year away from being a national title contender.
Projected NCAA Seed Range: 3-7
Predicted Preseason Odds: 30-1
Would Play Them At: Wouldn’t
Team: Purdue Boilermakers
Final Pomeroy Rating: 23
Losses to Graduation: Tarrance Crump
NBA Draft Flight Risks: Robbie Hummel (86)
Highly Touted Recruits: Ryne Smith (106, NR), Lewis Jackson (130, NR)
Outlook: Robbie Hummel isn’t going pro. You can take a deep breath and relax now Mr. Musburger.
I don’t think last year was a fluke, but the ceiling will remain low for Purdue as long as they continue to shoot 45% from inside the arc. That’s terrible. They need to either to get something established inside or shoot more threes.
Who plays PG next year? Looks like it will be true Freshman Smith or Kramer. Probably a combination of both. Whoever is handling it better protect the ball. The Boilers margin for error is not very big.
This is a nice squad that we should appreciate for what they are. A good shooting team that puts tremendous pressure on the ball defensively. I guess if they tree out of their minds and win a Big 10 title then a 2 seed is possible, but I think a 2nd-4th place finish in the Big 10 and a 4-7 seed is a lot more realistic.
Not worth a look to win it all.
Projected NCAA Seed Range: 3-7
Predicted Preseason Odds: 50-1
Would Play Them At: I won’t be
Team: Ohio St Buckeyes
Final Pomeroy Rating: 29
Losses To Graduation: Jamar Butler, Othello Hunter, Matt Terwilliger
NBA Draft Flight Risks: Kosta Koufos (21), Evan Turner (95)
Highly Touted Recruits: B.J. Mullen (4, 8), William Buford (19, 14), Terrelle Pryor (28, NR), Walter Offutt (99, 81), Anthony Crater (NR, 90)
Outlook: The run they are currently making in the N.I.T. could end up driving up their price, which is unfortunate.
Koufos is probably gone, but Mullens should be able to fill the void. Matta put together another incredible recruiting class. He would be insane to leave it behind for the Indiana job.
Much like Purdue I wonder who will play the point. They did sign 3* PG Anthony Crater in addition to the more highly touted recruits above, but how many teams have made Final 4 runs with a second tier Freshman prospect running the show. I presume not many.
Even without Koufos and the heralded recruiting class they return anice core of David Lighty, Evan Turner, Jon Diebler, and Dallas Lauderdale. They are going to be good. Miss Andrews figures to be doing a lot of ground breaking reporting in the Buckeye state next winter.
A #2 seed is well within reach if Koufos returns and/or Mullens blows up. There is a lot of talent in Columbus. The Buckeyes are my early April pick to win the Big 10.
Projected NCAA Seed Range: 2-5
Predicted Preseason Odds: 60-1
Would Play Them At: 75-1 Or Better
Other Early Big 11 Thoughts:
Sorry Indiana fans, but you guys are going to blow next year. Definitely not capsule worthy. Have fun hanging out with Iowa, Penn St, Michigan, and Northwestern in the bottom half of the Big 10.
Minnesota has a nice recruiting class coming in, but the losses of Coleman, Tollackson, and McKenzie probably leave them closer to being a CBI invitee than an NCAA tournament team.
Illinois should be interesting next year. The losses of Pruitt and Randle will hurt, but there is some talent lying in the weeds in the form of Alex Legion and Jamar Smith. They’ll probably finish with a few more wins, a lower Pomeroy rating, and a berth in the N.I.T.
There doesn’t appear to be a legitimate National Title contender in the Big 11. In fact the best team in 2009 will probably be worse than Wisconsin was in 2008. If there is any improvement to be found it is at the bottom, which is not the issue at hand.
This. League. Sucks.
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Great write ups. Thanks for taking the time to share with us!
you need to do some more research on purdue. crump did not start and was a backup pg. who will play pg? let’s see, the same guys that shread the duties last year. that would be keaton grant, chris kramer, and e’twaun moore, our starting guards. lewis jackson will get come off the bench and replace crump.
Actually, I don’t need to do a seconds more research on Purdue as despite making the stupid mistake of confusing Crump with Grant, I still believe I pegged them correctly.
Again, I am trying to label national title contenders with these predictions not predict how each teams season will unfold down to a tee.
I’m not proud of the mistakes, but they are going to happen when you are spread thin across the 5 major sports.
it’s kinda weird that you have purdue maybe finishing WORSE next year when they return all five starters and finished 13-3 this year??
the big10 is going to be worse next year. purdue is going to be better. but you have them finishing maybe in FOURTH?
they will be the preseason big10 favorite and a top 15 team all year.
Mark,
I always appreciate unbiased opinions such as the one that you are presenting. They really help me do my job.
I’m going to have to take another look at Purdue. This is the 1st preview that I did. I wasn’t fully aware of just how ugly things could be next year in some of the other conferences.
Purdue looks better and better after each preview that I do. I still think they need to figure out a way to score some easy baskets inside.
No worries, friend. Only because I am an Indiana HS basketball junkie do I follow this type of stuff so closely.
Purdue will have more team chemistry with starting PF Nemanja Calasan having more experience and top 50 recruit JuJuan Johnson adding more bulk.
Purdue will be in the top15 all next year and most likely win the league. Ohio State, Wisconsin and Michigan State will round out the top 4.
Minnesota, Northwestern and Penn State will finish anywhere between 5-8, and maybe Michigan in there as well.. Iowa, Illinois and Indiana will all be awful, sadly. One of the I schools could jump into that second tier, but sadly, all three schools are severely lacking in Big10 talent. At least they all have decent coaches now.
just pointing out facts that you overlooked. should help you do your job.
And just coming back real quickly to show I’m not a raging homer, but CNNSI has Purdue as preseason number 4, and the Champaign News Gazette has Purdue as preseason number 5.
I think those are both a bit high, but I would be surprised if Purdue drops from the top 15 at all next year. They are just too talented and too well coached.
Mark,
It’s not like I said they were going to suck. I am not sure what we are arguing about at this point.
I projected them between a 3-7 seed, and that is with the idiotic PG oversight built in. You have them as a Top 15 team, but not a Top 5 team. I’m not sure we are that far apart on our opinions of Purdue.
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