SouthLeastern No More, An April 3rd Look At The S.E.C.

Posted: April 3rd, 2008 | Filed under: Last Decade | 5 Comments »

Finally a league that may actually be better in 2008-2009. That really isn’t saying a whole lot though. Again the point of these previews is to identify national title contenders not to project the entire 2009 NCAA tournament field.

This is as good of a time as ever to mention that it isn’t the best idea to make futures moves that are completely reliant on Freshman playing well. Recruiting isn’t an exact science, and you just never know when a VHT Frosh is going to go, and I don’t know, SHOOT AN INNOCENT WOMAN IN THE STOMACH WITH A BEE-BEE GUN.

Funnier still than me finding this out hours after naming Wake as a potential sleeper for next year were the comments of the victim’s husband: “I’ll tell you, his shooting at my house was much better than his shooting at the McDonald’s game,” said Branden Baltich, referring to Aminu’s 0-point performance Wednesday.

Thanks to Chris for informing me of the incident and to Vegas for providing the link.

Team: Tennessee Volunteers

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Final Pomeroy Rating: 14

Losses To Graduation: Chris Lofton, JaJuan Smith, Jordan Howell

NBA Draft Flight Risks: Tyler Smith (37)

Highly Touted Recruits: Scotty Hopson (9, 16), Renaldo Woolridge (57, 99), Philip Jurick (63, 93)

Outlook: It appears that they have poached 5* recruit Scotty Hopson from Miss St. His signing won’t mean much if he decides to shoot someone with a BB gun before arriving on campus.

The losses of Smith and Lofton are huge. Even though Lofton was sometimes over matched against more athletic wings, he was still Tenny’s best scorer. There were more than a few awful Volunteer half court possessions last season that were rescued by Chris or JaJuan nailing a contested three.

If Tyler Smith returns they will roll out a lineup that features him, Ramar Smith, Wayne Chism, J.P. Prince, and Tabb/Hopson. That isn’t bad, and they should be 9 or 10 deep again in 2009.

I think most people assume that defense was the only thing holding them back last year, but that really wasn’t the case. The Louisville game is the perfect example of how ineffective their offense could be at times. Maybe they need to expand the playbook. Something has to improve. Either less easy baskets for the opposition or more for themselves.

The Vols will be good enough to launch a defense of their S.E.C. title, but the competition will be a lot stiffer this time around.

Projected NCAA Seed Range: 3-7

Predicted Preseason Odds: 30-1

Would Play Them At: 100-1

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Team: Miss St Bulldogs

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Final Pomeroy Rating: 33

Losses To Gradation: Charles Rhodes

NBA Draft Flight Risks: Jamont Gordon (63)

Highly Touted Recruits: Romero Osby (52, 42)

Outlook: The Bulldogs aren’t really capsule worthy, but they made me some good coin in 2008, so I am going to give them some free pub in return.

If Gordon gets some bad advice and declares early then they could be in a lot of trouble. Otherwise it is reasonable to assume that they will improve on last seasons 8 seed. As long as Jarvis Varnado continues to swallow up any shot that comes close to the rim the defense should be outstanding once again in 08-09.

Again, Freshman are no guarantee, but I can’t help but think that a combo guard like Hopson would have been the perfect for MSU. They really need another scorer.

All in all a nice team that won’t get much attention because they aren’t flashy. I look forward to backing them again next season.

Projected NCAA Seed: 4-8

Predicted Odds: 75-1

Would Play Them At: 30-1 if they had the other Hansbrough

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Team: Florida Gators

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Final Pomeroy Rating: 36

Losses To Graduation: None

NBA Draft Flight Risks: Marreese Speights (13), Nick Calathes (30)

Highly Touted Recruits: Kenny Kadji (17, 44), Eloy Vargas (10, 39), Allan Chaney (94,64), Ray Shipman (137, 54)

Outlook: They’re Back. Kind Of. Calathes and Speights both could be headed to an NBA bench near you next season. Speights is the more likely of the two to go pro. How often do 6′8 projected lottery picks not named Horford or Noah stay in school an extra year?

Who knows though. Maybe he’ll decide to comeback if he gets laughed out of enough NBA workouts due to his poor conditioning.

Worst case they are looking at a core of Hodge, Lucas, Werner, Parsons, and Tyus plus the 5 Freshman, provided there are no BB gun incidents.

My biggest concern is their defense. They were 178th in the country in D-EFG% last season. Hopefully for Gators fans Donnovan will spend April-October addressing this flaw rather than entertaining job offers.

At an April’s glance I like Florida’s roster a bit better than Tennessee’s, especially since there is a chance Calathes will be back.

Projected NCAA Seed Range: 2-6

Predicted Odds: 40-1

Would Play Them At: 100-1

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Other SEC Thoughts: If you put any stock in Rivals.Com’s rankings the S.E.C. did a great job recruiting this year’s Freshman crop. Florida (5), Alabama (11), Arkansas (14), LSU (18), Kentucky (19), Tennessee (24), and Georgia (30) are all clocking in with Top 30 Freshman classes at the moment.There just aren’t enough quality returning players working in combination with all this young talent to make for any additional Final 4 contenders.

Right now there are a lot of angry Hokies fans buzzing around my site because I chose the words “battle for N.I.T. and CBI positioning” over borderline NCAA tournament teams. For the rest of the S.E.C. teams I am just going to provide the facts and allow you to come to your own conclusions.

Arkansas loses Weems, Ervin, Townes, and Thomas to graduation. Beverley and Welsh are the only returnees that saw significant action last year.

Ole Miss is in a similar boat having lost 4 Seniors from this seasons NIT Semi-Finalist including the uber-efficient Dwayne Curtis.

LSU will be in a lot better shape if Anthony Randolph decides to come back, but seeing as how he is a lock for the lottery, I don’t think that will happen.

South Carolina brings back everybody but their coach. We won’t know whether that is a good thing or not until January at the earliest.

I was down on Kentucky last year. Why should I like them more next year with Crawford and Bradley gone?

Does Vandy have suitable replacements for Foster, Gordon, and Neltner?

To be fair I didn’t even really look at Auburn or Georgia. Maybe they’ll surprise. The fresh UGA recruits will have to be awfully good to make up for the departure of Gaines.

I almost gave Alabama a capsule. There were just too many ifs. If Richard Hendrix comes back. If Ronald Steele is actually healthy. If the Freshman are ready to contribute. About two to many IFS for a capsule. They have a chance to be good though. As in NCAA tournament good.

I found the gem of a Bruce Pearl pic on Google Images, but I am pretty sure With Leather published it first, so a thanks goes out to them.

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