The 2008 Final Four

Posted: April 4th, 2008 | Filed under: Last Decade | 2 Comments »

For most college hoops fans Saturday is going to be awesome. Anybody who complains about these pairings is a bona fide schmuck.

If I didn’t have 5.5x to win 30.46x riding on Kansas winning it all, I would be real excited. Instead I am sick to my stomach. It’s my cross to bear.

#1 Memphis vs #1 UCLA, 6:07 PM, Jim Nantz and Billy Packer

The Line: Memphis -2

The Money Lines: Memphis -138, UCLA +126

The Total: 135

My Play: UCLA +2 +102 (2)

Remember when I said that West Virginia and Xavier could not be more even, and an under crippling overtime was needed to decide that game? Well, it’s the same thing here only with much better teams.

Why is Memphis favored? Because the books knew that Memphis was going to draw more action than UCLA.

Memphis passes the eye test. They are fresh off blow out wins over Michigan St and Texas. The Tigers also play a faster, more photogenic brand of basketball than the Bruins do. 99% of sports gamblers bet with their eyes not their brains. Ergo Memphis is a 2 point favorite even when there is nothing tangible separating them from UCLA.

I have yet to hear a plausible argument for Memphis being better than UCLA.

Better Offense? Only if you value tempo inflated stats.

Better Defense? Try again. UCLA’s D is even better this year than it was back in 2006 the last time they shut down Memphis’ “Princeton on Steroids” offense.

More talent? How do you figure? UCLA has three future 1st round picks. Memphis has one.

Better Coach? You’re kidding right?

Better overall body of work? Get off my website. Seriously get off.

I’m not trying to make the case that UCLA is stronger in any of these categories either. They are even. It’s a coin flip. Betting on Memphis is like betting that over 100 coin flips the coin will come up heads 52 times and tails 48 times. You might win one time, but you will get killed over the long run.

#1 Kansas vs #1 North Carolina, 30 Minutes After UCLA-Memphis, Nantz and Packer

The Line: UNC -3

The Money Lines: UNC -152, Kansas +137

The Total: 159.5

The Play: None, not even a hedge

First of all I am not hedging. Not at this point. I will post an explanation as to why on Saturday.

My friend Vegas did a nice job of covering this game yesterday on his website. Normally I agree with him, but I don’t this time.

Not only is UNC the best team in the country, but they are probably the best basketball team in the history of the solar system.

If UNC played the ‘98 Bulls they would be favored even if the game was being played in Chicago. They are that good.

If I was running an NBA franchise I would trade all of my assets in an effort to accumulate the #1, #2, and #3 picks in next years draft so that I could select Hansbrough, Lawson, and Ellington in succession. Talk about a dynasty.

Don’t even get me started on Marcus Ginyard. He is going to eat Kareem Rush’s lunch for him.

Do you really think a Hall of Fame coach like Roy Williams is going to lose to his former team? Of course he isn’t. He is going to stick it to Kansas as revenge for them allowing him to leave for his dream job.

I cannot believe this line is only UNC -3. What is Vegas smoking? It should be UNC -10. LOL. This is easy money.

Editors Note: Sky Blue Font may denote sarcasm.

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