The Greek Has Posted 2009 College Hoops Futures Odds

Posted: April 9th, 2008 | Filed under: Last Decade | 4 Comments »

I knew I wasn’t crazy for doing those early previews. This morning Olympic posted their initial futures odds for the 2008-2009 college basketball season. There is no point in rushing through the Big East and Mid-Major previews now. Let’s talk about the odds instead.

These were current as of this morning at 8:30 AM CST:

Team	Greek Odds	Team	Greek Odds
Alabama	+1000	North Carolina	+650
Arizona	+3000	NC St	+10000
Arizona St	+3000	Notre Dame	+2000
Baylor	+5000	Ohio St	+1200
Boston College	+7500	Oklahoma	+5000
BYU	+7500	Oklahoma St	+8000
California	+7500	Oregon	+8000
Clemson	+5000	Pittsburgh	+2000
Uconn	+1500	Purdue	+2800
Duke	+650	Seton Hall	+12500
Florida	+1000	Stanford	+8000
Florida St	+7500	USC	+3000
Georgetown	+3000	Syracuse	+1500
Georgia	+8000	Tennessee	+3000
Georgia Tech	+5000	Texas	+1500
Gonzaga	+5000	Texas A&M	+5000
Illinois	+10000	Texas Tech	+7500
Indiana	+7500	UCLA	+650
Iowa	+10000	Villanova	+3000
Kansas	+1500	Va Tech	+5000
Kansas St	+3000	Wake Forest	+8000
Kentucky	+1500	Washington	+5000
Louisville	+1000	Washington St	+5000
LSU	+10000	West Virginia	+1500
Marquette	+5000	Wisconsin	+4000
Maryland	+5000	Field	+1200
Memphis	+1200
Miami Florida	+5000
Michigan	+10000
Michigan St	+3000
Ole Miss	+7500
Miss St	+7500
Missouri	+10000

I hit Georgetown at +3000 for 1 one unit. They are now down to 20-1. The Hoyas were one of the teams I was going to key on during the Big East preview. Good thing I was prepared.

Do not go crazy with these numbers. Most of the prices are garbage. The Greek had to be conservative. They are the first shop to post odds, and they are posting them at a time when pretty much every roster faces at a large degree of uncertainty.

You will be able to get better prices on most of these teams if you wait until after the draft deadline passes. I only took the Hoyas because I had a strong feeling I wasn’t going to see 30-1 again.

Let’s start at the top:

Is Alabama at 10-1 a typo? Didn’t they forget a zero? I thought Alabama was a good sleeper team, but 10-1 is a contenders price. Right now Steele and Hendrix have one foot in the draft. I don’t get it.

Arizona at 30-1 is typical. Budinger and Bayless have already declared. Lute’s Cats are almost always overvalued.

Arizona St at 30-1 is lower than I was hoping for. I love Harden and Pendergraph, but I’m not sure they have enough help. If you like them, I’d hold out for 50-1 at the very least.

Baylor is one of my favorite teams, but 50-1 isn’t enough for a team that doesn’t play defense.

Boston College, BYU, and Cal are all 75-1. You won’t play them at those odds when they are on the bubble in March, so don’t do it now.

Uconn at 15-1 is a good price if Thabeet comes back and a terrible one if he declares. Not worth the gamble in my opinion.

As predicted Duke is one of the favorites to win it all next year. There is no value at +650.

Florida at 10-1 is way too high with Speights already in the draft. I like where Donnovan has them headed, but I wouldn’t touch that line with my worst enemy’s money.

I’ll elaborate on my Hoyas play another time. I don’t think we will see 30-1 again. I’ve been wrong before though. I will be furious if they appear at 50-1 down the road at another book.

Gonzaga at 50-1 intrigues me, but Daye and Heytvelt are both flirting with the draft as I type this. Zaga becomes a lot less interesting without both of those bigs. There is no rush on the Zags anyways. You’ll be able to get price on them all summer long.

The odds on Illinois, Indiana, and Iowa are hilarious. I wouldn’t take those odds on any one of these teams winning the N.I.T.

Both Kansas state schools have terrible odds. This was expected in the case of Kansas. I would like to meet the person living outside of Manhattan, KS who takes the Wildcats at 30-1. Is the Greek hedging against Michael Beasley coming back? They might as well start preparing for the apocalypse while they are at it.

Kentucky at 15-1 is the worst number on the board. Further evidence that books like to exploit bettor tendencies.

Louisville was one of the teams I was looking hard at, but not at 10-1. Clark and Caracter are both in the draft, and Terrence Williams is at the very least going through the pre-draft process. Samardo Samuels will have to be awfully freakin good to replace Padgett, Clark, and Caracter by himself.

Marquette at 50-1 is the only other number besides Georgetown and Gonzaga that I even considered. It doesn’t bother me that I wouldn’t know Buzz Williams from Buzz Peterson. Hiring from within makes a ton of sense if it keeps James, Hayward, Matthews, and McNeal in Milwaukee a little bit longer. They have to find a way to replace Barro’s rebounding, but they should be very good next year.

Memphis isn’t going to fall off the map in 2009. There is still plenty of talent left on the roster after Rose, CDR, and Dorsey leave. Playing in C-USA will allow them to run up another gaudy regular season record which should translate into a high tourney seed. If you like the Tigers I suggest waiting until CDR and Rose make their draft desires official. The price could rise to 20-1.

The Michigan St, Purdue, and Wisconsin prices are all about what I expected. Not worth playing but not terrible either.

Miss St is probably going to win the SEC West again. That doesn’t mean they will get any respect from the committee. 75-1 is a good price, but can you make money off it?

If you have inside info that Psycho T and Ty Lawson are coming back then go ahead and hammer UNC at +650. Otherwise it is a terrible bet.

Notre Dame is a lock to make the tournament next year, but 20-1 isn’t very good for a team that has mastered the art of getting blown out on the road. I’m sure there are plenty of ND alum with 6 figure salaries who will hammer those odds all the same.

Did Olympic read my write-up of Ohio St? I know they are going to be good, but 12-1 for a team that doesn’t have a PG? That is nuts.

I thought Pitt’s second round loss to Michigan St would knock them down a peg in people’s eyes. Apparently not. They aren’t going to be very good unless Sam Young decides to master his tippy-toe pump fake as a 24 year old senior.

USC got a boost with Jefferson coming back. They will contend in the Pac 10, but 30-1 is hardly a bargain.

I am high on Syracuse heading into next year with or without Donte Green, but 15-1 is an insult.

I still love Bruce Pearl and the Vols, but I had 50-1 last year with JaJuan Smith and Chris Lofton still on the team, and I lost money. 30-1 isn’t bad against a watered down field as long as Tyler Smith is still around, but I recommend staying away unless you view them as a 1-2 seed.

I’d run over my own grandmother to play Texas at 15-1 if I knew for sure that Augustin would be back, but I highly doubt that he will be.

The A&M price is line with what I expected. I’d rather have Marquette or Gonzaga at 50-1 even if Jordan returns for his sophomore season.

Love and Collison are going pro. I knew UCLA would be overpriced anyways. Don’t touch them.

Wake is only 80-1. I am surprised they are even listed. Come on Olympic, are you reading my site? Fess Up. Carib will have a better price on the Deacons in a few weeks if you really want to play them.

WVU at 15-1 is horrible. It’s a product of the Sweet 16 run and the Dana O’Neil organized Joe Alexander suck off. I don’t care whether Alexander comes back or not. He sucks. Darris Nichols is a much bigger loss. He was the most important guy on that team last year. Mazzulla has shown some flashes at PG, but he won’t be able to replace what Nichols gave them all on his own.

The Clemson, Florida St, Georgia, Georgia Tech, LSU, Maryland, Miami FLA, Michigan, Ole Miss, Missouri, NC ST, Oklahoma, Okie St, Oregon, Seton Hall, Stanford, Texas Tech, Villanova, Va Tech, Washington, and Wazzu prices are all for huge homers only. You can laugh openly at me if one of those teams wins the title next year.

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