The 2009 Hilton Contest: Week 10
Posted: November 12th, 2009 | Filed under: Hilton Contest | No Comments »
Last Week: 3-2
Overall: 19-26
Current Standing: Approximately 265th out of 328
I say approximately because the standings posted on the Hilton’s very own website are not 100% accurate, and I don’t want to overstate how well I’m doing in this thing.
Bullshit
At press time, these were the 5 best contest lines of the week:
New England +3 (4.1% edge)
Jets -6.5 (2.8% edge)
Packers +3 (2.4% edge)
Eagles +2.5 (2.2% edge)
Seahawks +8.5 (1.3% edge)
The public prefers the Patriots, but they’re playing the fucking Colts. Much like with the Giants in week 8, I highly doubt that this line was set with Joe 6 team teaser in mind. I’m sure this logic will generate results similar to last time.
Selection #1: New England Patriots +3
The edges on the other 4 are not quite large enough to warrant immediate action, so I will now drag my leans into the mix:
Redskins +3.5 (.9% edge)
Panthers +1.5 (-.6% edge)
Rams +13.5 (1.2% edge)
Browns +10.5 (.2% edge)
Packers +3 (2.4% edge)
If I’m optimistic and say that super anti-pub sides hit 53% of the time at market price then that leaves the Panthers at ~52.4%, which is worse than the Jets, equal to the Packers, and only slightly better than the Eagles. At this point I’m more of a skeptic than an optimist when it comes to contrarian theory, which means Carolina is not making this card.
In my opinion the Seahawks are easily the worst of the remaining 6 options, leaving 4 spots for Nyj, GB, Phi, Stl, Cle and Was to fill. I guess there is some upside to not being in contention because at 26-19 I’d likely spend hours obsessing over what is ultimately a pretty trivial decision(s). At 19-26, however, I’m just going to randomly pick 4.
Selection #2: New York Jets -6.5
Selection #3: Green Bay Packers +3
Selection #4: St. Louis Rams +13.5
Selection #5: Washington Redskins +3.5
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