Carib Stupidity 59% Complete

Posted: November 17th, 2009 | Filed under: Carib Stupidity | No Comments »

ML: 51-49 (102 points)
VW: 48-51-1 (97 points)
JP: 48-52 (96 points)

We’ve been running our simulations under the assumption that 1/2 of our picks will be the same, which may or may not be correct. Here is how we overlapped last week:

ML-VW: New England
ML-JP: Carolina, Washington, Cleveland
JP-VW: Seattle, Green Bay
All 3: St. Louis Rams

That’s 5 uniques for ML, 4 for JP, and 6 for VW, which matches up perfectly with that 50% figure. Now that is just one week, but it is probably in line with what happened over the first 10.

Regardless, the idea is to project the future, and I think it is fair to assume that the picks are going to become more & more original as we jockey for position down the stretch. Doubling the # of remaining picks (25% the same) and incorporating the updated standings generated the following to win probabilities:

ML: 54.4%
VW: 22.08%
JP: 17.78%

A huge thanks goes out to XLS Sports for making this nonsense possible. It is comforting to know that there is a better than 1 in 2 chance that I’ll be able to drink on NYE without  having to wear an inflatable Rams helmet.