From The Archives Vol. #3
Posted: November 19th, 2009 | Filed under: Last Decade | 7 Comments »
NFL: 70-70-3 (50%), +.245x
NCAAF: 97-76-4 (56%), +45.94x
Aggregate: 167-146-7 (53%), +46.19x
It was a great season. The numbers were obviously good, but to end up where I did after being stuck over 10K in early September is truly amazing and a testament to my improved money management.
Yep. It was all about the money management. Playing 7 NFL sides/totals per week on average for an entire NFL season just screams DISCIPLINE.
I ended up making more money from Sept-Dec wagering on football than some school teachers make in a year after taxes, which is outrageous.
Who fucking cares? There were probably quite a few self proclaimed geniuses making this same claim after Week 7 of this year. Winning N dollars over an arbitrary time period is a hollow and meaningless accomplishment.
More importantly than the money though is the fact that I am a much more sophisticated player now than I was in September. I continue to improve season after season even if the numbers don’t always reflect it, and that my friends is good news for everybody going forward.
The part about me becoming a much more sophisticated player is actually true. In September of ‘07 I graded out as a 13 out of 1,000 on the sophistication scale, and in February of ‘08 I had risen all the way to a 15. That’s progress.
The results from this year suggest that I am a college football expert and an NFL novice, but I highly doubt that to be the case. In 2006 I hit 64% of my NFL plays and finished in the Top 25 of a national handicapping contest while simultaneously losing my ass playing college football. It was basically the polar opposite of 2007.
This actually pisses me off. I don’t mind looking back and seeing that I was an (bigger) idiot in my early 20’s, but it is pretty obvious here that I was (somewhat) aware of the randomness inherent in my occupation, and yet it would be another 18 full months before I really began to bow to it. Unfortunate really.
If you think following my college football plays alone is your path to riches then you are probably sadly mistaken. The profit is always out there, but when and what sport it is going to come from is impossible to tell.
Fixed that for myself. As it turns out, it was impossible to tell.
I am going to try to play buckets and bases straight through to August with no breaks. This has been hard for me in the past due to variance and subsequent bankroll restraints, but this season’s football profits should solve that problem. As long as I don’t hit another 16 game losing streak like I did last baseball season, Feb-Aug should be just as profitable as Sep-Jan were.
My new motto: If I don’t hit another 16 game losing streak, I might just turn a profit.
Good Luck.
I actually got a lot of it in the 8 months following this post. Unfortunately, it did not last.
“Fixed that for myself. As it turns out, it was impossible to tell.”
I don’t think it’s that surprising that Golf has become profitable. I feel like the books take so little Golf action that even a big bettor with a small edge would put such a little dent in their profits compared to other sports that they aren’t nearly as worried about Golf as say the NFL.
“Yep. It was all about the money management. Playing 7 NFL sides/totals per week on average for an entire NFL season just screams DISCIPLINE.”
The other point, is I think if you are cutting plays that are legitimately marginal or worse than that is fine. However, if you are cutting plays for the sake of risking less per week, then that could actually bring a higher volatility to your results. I’m sure you already considered that, but it might be worth considering for others.
“I don’t think it’s that surprising that Golf has become profitable. I feel like the books take so little Golf action that even a big bettor with a small edge would put such a little dent in their profits compared to other sports that they aren’t nearly as worried about Golf as say the NFL.”
Did you realize these things before or after you had been heavily involved in the golf market?
“The other point, is I think if you are cutting plays that are legitimately marginal or worse than that is fine. ”
I think the preceding link did a nice job of establishing that I was in fact doing a lot of questionable stuff, and it is pretty safe to say that there weren’t 140 legitimate anti-public plays during the 2007 NFL season.
“Did you realize these things before or after you had been heavily involved in the golf market?”
No, definitely not. At first approached it like everything else, then did some really stupid things for a few months and threw away money unnecessarily. But, since mid summer I feel like I’ve gotten to a point where I feel like golf(outrights, top-5s and tourney match-ups, at least) will be my most consistent source of profit for the time being.
“But, since mid summer I feel like I’ve gotten to a point where I feel like golf(outrights, top-5s and tourney match-ups, at least) will be my most consistent source of profit for the time being.”
I don’t disagree. I think the process has become very solid over the last year. But if you had told me what we’d be doing back when I wrote the OP, I would have banned you.
Oh, okay. Thought you meant you were surprised at the recent results since your return.
you putting your hilton picks up today?
I didn’t feel like writing that post this week. I can’t even recall who I took off the top of my head.