Big Brown Is Not A Lock
Posted: May 16th, 2008 | Filed under: Last Decade | 16 Comments »
In fact betting on BB to win the Preakness is one of the worst wagering opportunities I have seen in the last 3 years. It is situated right between USA Men’s Basketball at -200 to win the 2006 Euro Championship, and Tiger Woods to win any major over the last 4 years in the sucker bet Hall of Fame.
But don’t let me stop you from hammering Big Brown at -250, -300, -400, or whatever ridiculous chalk price he ends up closing at. I know a lot of you are going to no matter what I say. That is fine. I am not going to let you do it with a clear conscious though.
Sorry, but I’ve seen this movie before. Haven’t you? You know the one where all those gamblers risked their paychecks and second mortgages on the horse that couldn’t lose. Only he did lose. In fact he didn’t even make it around the first turn.
I wish I could find some of the posts from two years ago when Barbaro went off as a less than even money favorite at the Preakness. You wouldn’t believe what people were saying then. There were so many “My entire bankroll on Barbaro!!!!!!!!!!” and “Barbaro Is A Stone Cold Freakin LOCKKKKKKKKKKK” posts that I actually lost count.
We’ve been reminded WAY to many times by the main stream media over the last two years about how that one turned out.
I hate* to make this joke, but Barbaro wasn’t the only living being that wound up with a broken leg as a result of that race. There were hundreds of degenerate gamblers who gave up gambling for good* after that fiasco.
Big Brown is an even bigger favorite tomorrow, due to the extremely weak field, than Barbaro was two years ago. This isn’t another reason to bet on him. It is another reason not to. Why on Earth would you want to risk 3 to win 1 on something as chaotic and unpredictable as a horse race. They are fucking animals for Christ’s sake.
Alright, that is enough. My blood pressure is spiking. Do whatever you want, but know that the risk on this one far outweighs the reward.
If Big Brown wins feel free to come back here and brag about all the money you won after the track cut and juice was accounted for. I want to hear all about it. It will be another refreshing reminder as to why there are so few of me, and so many of you, in the sports wagering galaxy.
*good = as long as it took to get another loan
*hate = been waiting for two years
They are fucknig animals for Christ’s sake.
Says the guy who bet on me to win the AT&T Classic.
Ryuji,
Maybe if you weren’t so busy reading this site while out on the course you would have shot better than a fucking 38 on the Back 9 yesterday.
Shut up and get back into contention.
Since you’re obviously staying away from Big Brown, what about the reverse bet? What price would you play The Field at? My book has it at +200.
DavidH,
I have no clue what good odds are. I do know that the longer you wait, the better odds you are going to get. The books are going to be flooded with Big Brown money. It is going to be crazy.
With a ponies bet such as the one you are talking about, do you get the closing price or the price you bet it at??
That is worth looking into if you want to play the field.
I’m not a ponies guy, but I’d assume I’d get the price I bet it at. Why would the books give away free money?
This is great. I’ll send this to VW as well as it’s the kind of sportsbook error he appreciates.
Will Big Brown Win the 133rd Preakness Stakes
Yes (Must Race ofr Action) -300
No (Must Race ofr Action) +200
133rd Preakness Stakes – Winning Saddlecloth Number
Odd -300
Even +200
Now… without even looking, I’ll assume that Big Brown’s saddlecloth number is odd. By betting even, you’re cutting your potential winners in half by betting the second prop instead of the first.
At Sportsbook, they have some listed odds and props in the regular sportsbook platform, and you get those wagers at their listed odds.
However, if you use their horse racing function to bet WPS, exactas, trifectas, etc. on the race, then it works just as it does at the track… you won’t know your payoff until the odds settle right before the race.
Oh, wow, I didn’t know that’s how it worked at the track. Like I said, I’m not a ponies guy. I’ve been to the track once, and it was before I was really interested in gambling.
That seems so weird. It makes predicting future market moves important. Interesting.
It sucks. That is why I will never waste my time with ponies.
I can’t tell you how annoyed I would be if for instance I pounded Kansas at +800 and +725 to win it all and got stuck with the +550 market price when I was the one who moved the market in the first place.
No Thanks.
He’s also -130 to NOT win the Triple Crown. I understand that this is 100% square logic, but hasn’t that not happened in like 30 years or something?
That’s why it pays to play in races with big pools. Not only does it equal more dumb money, but it also equals more money period. With smaller tracks, a $100-500 bet can move the odds, so even if you have a longshot picked out, there is no value.
On the Triple Crown races you would have to bet $1-5,000 to make any difference, and probably more.
That being said, the only value for BB is in the exotics. If he does win, then you better have some longshots underneath him. Of course if he doesn’t win(which I’m pretty sure is how I’m going to bet), the payouts will be big.
I know that none of you like betting on the ponies, but I have found some very good value in it. Yeah, the whole industry has issues due to the horseman strikes, increased take out, and overall shadiness, but if you are patient, there is value.
I think the main problem most gamblers have with the ponies is that it’s very easy to get in over your head instead of just picking the right plays, and laying off the wrong plays. “I’ve had a bad day, but if I just hit this super in the last race” syndrome. I think if vegaswatch put his analytical mind to work on this, he’d be making money in no time.
Did you write this article for me?
I wrote it for the people who had Barbaro in 2006 and were still somehow considering Big Brown tomorrow. Those people needed a reminder. Not that they will listen.
But yes, I fully expect you to be on him tomorrow.
I’m a clown, I’m the one who had Barbaro in 2006 and still didn’t learn my lesson. I have scaled back my initial lean and am now just looking to win 2 units tomorrow on him.
Where are the best odds people have found on Big Brown tomorrow? I’ve found -265. Has anyone found better and at which book? I expect him to get bet down to 2:5 odds when the race starts, so unless you can find odds -250 or better I would suggest using a racebook and betting him to win.
Is there a prop bet at Sportsbook for BB to get vanned off? That’s one bet I would love to make.
Here are my bets for the Preakness. I’m off to a good start on the Pimlico card, and if the 6 comes through…I’m going to have a great day(proabably end up around 120 units). I have the 6 in my Pick3’s, Pick4’s, DD’s, and Pick6. If the 6 doesn’t come through, the most I can lose is about 10 units because of my morning wins, so I’m not going to be too upset.
Win/Place 6
Superfecta BX,6,7,8,10
Exacta BX,6,7,8,10
Trifecta BX,6,7,8,10
Trifecta 6,WT,7,8,10,13,WT,7,8,10,13
Superfecta 6,7,WT,6,7,8,10,WT,6,7,8,10,13,WT,6,7,8,10,13