The Playoff At Torrey Pines
Posted: June 15th, 2008 | Filed under: Last Decade | 8 Comments »
Rocco Mediate To Win +340 (Risking 1)
I’ll begin by tipping my cap to Tiger. The putt on 18 was awesome. Just think about how nervous you get when you have to hit a drive with the group behind you watching and then magnify that feeling 1,000,000,000 fold. Most people collapse under pressure. Tiger doesn’t.
If anyone can relate to what Rocco was feeling after Tiger’s putt dropped, it is me. Now granted winning the United States Open is probably a much bigger deal than correctly forecasting the outright winner of the Stanford St. Jude Championship two days in advance, but on scale they are similar.
It should go without saying that Tiger isn’t a lock tomorrow. Rocco has just as much, if not more, to play for then TW does. He also has the perfect disposition for this type of high pressure situation. He may get outplayed, but he isn’t going to just give this thing away.
For four rounds at Torrey Pines these two have been dead even. I don’t understand why, especially with the lingering injury concerns, we should expect this to change overnight. It is one round of golf. Not a careers worth.
The opening line at Pinnacle for the playoff was +270. It has now climbed as high as +340 some places. There is more money coming in on Tiger. Shocking. Maybe it is just all the people with Rocco outrights hedging out….
From the looks of it not very many people with Woods outrights are hedging. In fact I’d bet there have been more add-ons then hedges from that bunch.
Is there any value taking Rocco +260 on the front nine? My thoughts, in list form:
1) If I’m backing a dog, I feel more comfortable with a smaller sample size. Tiger is obviously the better golfer, so the variance that goes along with a smallish sample size seems like it would be the Rocco-backer’s friend.
2) Tiger has struggled early in his rounds, as well as on the front 9 (compared to Rocco). Could be random, but it could also be his knee balking before the adrenaline (codeine?) kicks in.
3) Front nine has 1 par 5 (Par: 35) and the back nine has 2 (Par: 36).
I had other thoughts, but they have been cannibalized by the half-bottle of Nyquil I took a few minutes ago. Good luck tomorrow.
There is value. I wouldn’t put too much stock into points #2 and #3, but #1 has some merit.
Don’t forget that historically Tiger has owned the front half of Torrey.
Rocco is down to +280 at Olympic this morning. When I hit it for the max last night at +340 they didn’t move it at all, at least not right away. Somebody(s) has gotten hard down on Rocco.
Looks like I lied when I said Rocco wouldn’t give it away. He can’t buy a five footer.
I need to stop fucking around with live betting, it is way too addicting. After hole one I took Rocco at +400. Now after 14 when he evened it up I bought Tiger at -150 for the initial unit. Now I stand to win 2.5 units if Rocco wins and lose nothing if Tiger wins. Because I did this Tiger will now lose so that I cost myself 1.5 units for nothing. Still, I’m wondering what you think of my logic on this one?
I would have loved to hedge, but I couldn’t find a good price.
Tiger To Win +160 (Risking 1/2)
Placed this just before Rocco teed off on 18.
Is there anywhere to watch this online? I’m stuck in London for business and it’s not on fucking tv over here.