College Football Undefeated Odds
Posted: July 24th, 2008 | Filed under: Last Decade | No Comments »
I came up with the chart below using the same methodology as I did with the USC, Ohio St, and Georgia previews. These numbers do not take into account any potential conference championship games or bowl games.
Vegas Watch did this a few weeks ago in his own way. Some of our numbers are similar. Others not so much.
Coming up with the point spreads for each game was a lot easier tonight then it was a few weeks ago. This time around I had access to a few sets of power numbers as well as the Sportsbook GOY odds.
I gave up on the college football previews early on because it became clear to me that there was no value to be had in this season’s college football futures market. I didn’t want to waste my time if there wasn’t going to be a bet in it for me at the end.
However, I ended up making a play after coming up with this latest list. Naturally I took the only team with actual value*, although it was extremely marginal and probably even debatable. I’ll be making a post about it on Monday. Feel free to guess in the mean time.
As expected USC has the best chance to finish the season undefeated. That doesn’t mean they are the best team though. Their odds of going 12-0 aren’t that much better than Florida and Oklahoma’s, and USC probably has the easiest schedule of the 3.
The primary set of power numbers* that I used in coming up with the lines had Georgia rated as the 2nd best team in the nation yet they only have the 10th best shot of going 12-0. It just goes to show how brutal that schedule really is.
A few teams had their odds completely slaughtered by one game. LSU would be in okay shape if they didn’t have to travel to Gainesville this year where they figure to be more than a one TD underdog. USF’s spot on the list will probably surprise some people, but if it weren’t for the Bulls season ending trip to Morgantown, they’d have a truly excellent shot of running the table.
I’ve spent a lot of time over the last month lamenting the fact that I never got down on Clemson while they were still out there at 50-1. Turns out this was a nice case of blind luck. They probably won’t be an underdog all season long, but their odds of reaching the national championship game are still very slim. Land mines litter the Tigers path to Miami.
Iowa and Notre Dame do not have very good chances of making it through their schedules unbeaten. Hawkeye fans were extremely excited about the two year break from Ohio St and Michigan when the schedule came out a few years ago. It is a shame that the team just isn’t very good anymore. They could be underdogs in half their games.
I really respect Pinnacle’s honesty in regards to BYU. Even if the Cougs do go undefeated they still won’t get an invite to the national championship game nor should they. Not when their signature win would be at Utah.
Based solely on my numbers and the Pinnacle odds West Virginia is best bet on this list, but they probably don’t represent true value. Oklahoma would be my next choice, I guess.
Make sure to shop around if you decide to make your own play. Every team on this list besides USC is available elsewhere at a better price.
*I got much better odds elsewhere.
*Phil Steele’s. Don’t even think about calling me biased.
Your asterisk usage could really use some work. Are you trying to tell me you placed a wager on Phil Steele’s team?
By the way, I’m sure these odds are more accurate than mine. Doing it game-by-game is a much better way to do it than using the same W% throughout.
Yikes, I didn’t even look at Oklahoma’s schedule. Is there a game outside the Big 12 title (outside maybe Tech) where they won’t be favored by double digits next year?
Took mizzou a few months ago @ 20-1
Easier path in the North than OK in the south
and twice the payout
They probably won’t be favored by DD in Dallas against the Horns.
Great post. Good to see I am not the only guy who refers to Phil Steele’s CFB bible as essential reading for the (pre) season.
I haven’t gotten the 2008 season copy yet, but did anyone else notice that he really removed a lot of his ATS stuff in the 2007 edition? I know his book is used by a lot of people “in the know” – but it seems he’s really trying to appeal to a wider audience by doing that. Too bad – I think even recreational college football fans appreciate that stuff. But maybe I am biased because I have no CFB loyalty and use it as a vehicle to further my gambloring addiction.
Steele’s rag is about 12-15 pages worth of quality info and 308 pages of Phil Steele talking about how great Phil Steele is. It is worth the $8 for those 12-15 pages though.
Steele is turning in to the Dicky V of magazine guys. The biggest sham is his “most improved list” where he spends 5 pages telling you how 10 of his 20 teams improved the year before and we should therefore suck him off. He has Notre Dame as his most improved team this year-way to go way out on a limb.
I agree with ML that there are some decent sections and it is worth it to me to have all that information in one easily accessible place if nothing else.
I personally love the conference championship games, but under the current BCS format they do the Big 12, S.E.C., and ACC a great disservice.
It chops Oklahoma and Florida’s odds of going undefeated down by 33%.
USC will be sitting extremely pretty if they get by Ohio St.
The best info in Steele’s publication is in the back. His team by team breakdowns are garbage unless you really want to know what Middle Tennessee St’s QB situation was like back in 2003.
i like when he says
“teams that fell into this category equaled or improved their record the following year for a 75% success rate..”
since when is equaling your previous year’s record a success..?? So the fact that you didn’t go down means you are successful??
you think that 4-8 team that goes 4-8 again the following year views it as a “successful” year…?? or that mediocre team that has plateaued at 7-5 is happy to win 7 games for yet another year…
it’s probably bc the teams that actually improved with this stat is only about 55% but when you include teams that didn’t go down it looks a bit more impressive at 75%
but yet he touts this nugget like it’s the holy grail of trends
Totally. I also like how he devotes an entire 2 page spread to the All-Independent team wherein every single Notre Dame starter is first team. Perhaps the most useless 2 pages in history.
I’ll stop, there is too much useless shit to pick out. I do love that it is Musberger’s favorite publication-he gave it a plug during his first broadcast last year.
I would also rate it is as the best pre-season mag by default. The others really don’t bring anything to the table. I could give a fuck’s shit where a bunch of journalists think teams are going to finish within each conference.
I miss Brent. He is going to get a lot of airtime on this site next season. He isn’t going to be around forever and his greatness needs to be further documented while he is still in the twilight years of his prime.
I’m too lazy to look up the teams odds at different books, but I’m guessing your money is on Mizzou. They get to skip OU and TT this year and I believe Texas is in for a down year. They’re returning most of their important pieces(only three sophomores(one of which is Maclin) and zero freshman starters) and are still being overlooked by a lot of people.
They should handle Illinois at home to start the year and don’t have another really tough game until Week 7 at Texas, although at Nebraska should at least provide a game. Look at their road schedule: Nebraska, Texas, Baylor, Iowa State; all in non-consecutive weeks. Kansas is on neutral ground, I’m not sure where the Illinois game is, but I think St. Louis, which is a definite Mizzou advantage.
As you said above, the conference championship game is their real downfall. I still don’t see them taking down OU, but stranger things have certainly happened.
If I weren’t a diehard KU fan, I would probably be thinking about Methzou pretty hard. If you can’t get them at better than 20:1 or so though, would it be better to just put one unit on them for the ML and roll it over each week? They certainly aren’t going to the title game without running the table and should have at least palatable juice with Illinois, Texas, KU, Big 12 Championship, and National Title game. You’re a lot more accurate predicting lines than me, if you want to come up with guesses for the ML on their games, I’ll run the numbers for it.
Mizzou is……
Incorrect.
Based on the numbers and your statement that you got better odds than the ones listed, i might guess you caught WVU at 30-1. With a 7% undefeated percentage, that means they have to be about a 50% chance to win the NC to have value. That’s pretty marginal.
Then again, you’re bearish on WVU.
So I’ll stick with the same conference: USF at 65:1?
Ding Ding Ding. We have a winner. Only I got 80-1.
They really stick out like a sore thumb on that list. That song from Sesame Street has served me well in my wagering career. One of these teams is not like the other. One of these teams just doesn’t belong.
Sweet, what do I win? Something from chic33 for my lady friend, perhaps?
Also, I was poking around Bodog to look at their CFB futures, and they’ve got USC’s O/U at 10.5 (-200). Am I reaching with an under bet there (+150)? Seems like there’s a lot of value there. Under 11 at the Greek is -180.
My numbers, which are far from perfect, have them going under 10.5 about 53% of the time. So +150 would be great value, but again, my numbers are far from perfect.
Where did you get 80-1?
and how much did u lay?
Five Dimes. One Unit. They aren’t 80-1 any longer at 5 Dimes.
I guess I didn’t retain Thomas Brown as a reader. I was expecting him to complain by now that I didn’t give UGA a 100% chance of going undefeated.
Shit yeah, at 80:1 they are a great deal. Too bad KU is going to crush them. Okay, not crush them, but I really do think we win that game. Mangino cares about getting those Florida recruits. And as we all know, the team that needs to win more always wins. It’s science.
“You are looking live at The Money Line Journal”
Still 75-1 at ML’s favorite book Carib